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Overview

The Forecasting tool provides media buyers with projected auction availability based on targeting and creative parameters. This helps users assess whether a line item has sufficient supply to meet its goals.

How It Works

To access Availability Forecasting, navigate to the Edit Line Item screen and select the Analytics tab.

Selecting a Sampling Date Range

• A Sampling Date Range must be selected from the left-hand side. This determines the historical data used to generate the forecast. The range can span from up to 30 days ago through yesterday.
• It is important to select an appropriate date range that reflects any recent changes, such as modified QPS filters, as these can significantly affect traffic makeup. Failure to do so may result in an unrepresentative sample.
• If no specific preference is required, the default (last 7 days) is recommended.

After selecting a date range, click Run Forecast. The forecast typically takes between 5-30 seconds to complete, with longer times for more complex line item targeting expressions. Please note that the forecast is based on the last saved changes to the line item; unsaved changes are not considered.

Daily/Lifetime Auctions

The Daily and Lifetime Auctions tiles display the forecasted projections, including:

• Daily Estimate: The forecasted number of auctions for each day.
• Lifetime Estimate: The total projected auctions over the line item's lifetime.
• Comparison: The percentage change between the most recent and previous forecast runs. This allows for easy comparison of adjustments such as targeting changes or added creatives. The comparison is valid only within the same page view.

Forecasting Visualization

The Forecasting Visualization provides a time-series bar chart on the right side of the tool, showing the projected number of auctions for the next 7 days.

• The data is based on the latest observed value for each day of the week within the selected date range.
• The chart includes:
  • Daily Average Line: Displays the average forecast for the next 7 days.
  • Previous Forecast Line: A dotted line showing the daily average from the previous forecast, enabling a direct comparison with the current forecast.

Segments

Availability Forecasting supports segments, with a few important considerations:

• 1st Party Segments: The segment must exist within the customer’s bidder during the selected sampling date range. It does not need to be targeted by any line item.
• 3rd Party Segments: The segment must have been shared with and targeted by a line item within the selected date range.

While segments and segment booleans are supported, the following features are not currently supported:

• Segment Recency
• Segment Extension

Unsupported Parameters

The following targeting and creative features are not accounted for in the Availability Forecasting tool:

• Lat/Long Lists
• Lists <2 Hours Old: It takes up to 2 hours for lists to update after creation or modification.
• Segment Recency & Segment Extension
• Certain Creative Attributes: MIME Type, Video Bit Rate, and Expandable Directions
• IP Range Functionality
• Flights